Open AccessSTATISTICAL PREDICTION OF HURRICANE STORM SURGE
Author(s) -
Yi-Kan Cheng,
Andrea Parisi,
William S. Gaither
Publication year - 1970
Publication title -
proceedings of conference on coastal engineering/proceedings of ... conference on coastal engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2156-1028
pISSN - 0589-087X
DOI - 10.9753/icce.v12.122
Subject(s) - gumbel distribution , storm surge , storm , range (aeronautics) , meteorology , surge , environmental science , climatology , mathematics , extreme value theory , engineering , geology , statistics , geography , aerospace engineering
High water associated with a hurricane is an important design parameter in coastal engineering Long range rational predictions can be made on the basis of Gumbel's theory of extremes and Wemelsfelder's theory respectively Fundamentals and underlying assumptions of the two theories are investigated and predictions are made for Breakwater Harbor, Lewes, Delaware, and Atlantic City, New Jersey Gumbel's theory is found satisfactory according to a criterion A crucial point, the ground rule of counting exceedances, is found to be vague in Wemelsfelder's method The ground rule must be made definite in a meaningful prediction.