Open AccessModelling and Qualitative Analysis of the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria
Author(s) -
T Yusuf,
Ayodeji Sunday Afolabi,
Emmanuel Jesuyon Dansu,
Afeez Abidemi
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
asian research journal of mathematics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2456-477X
DOI - 10.9734/arjom/2022/v18i430370
Subject(s) - basic reproduction number , outbreak , pandemic , population , stability theory , covid-19 , transmission (telecommunications) , epidemic model , disease , econometrics , control (management) , order (exchange) , mathematics , economics , mathematical economics , computer science , demography , biology , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , virology , sociology , physics , telecommunications , artificial intelligence , pathology , quantum mechanics , nonlinear system , finance
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues despite series of control measures implemented to curtail it. Therefore, it is pertinent to study how the various proposed control measures can be effectively combined in order to stem the alarming spread of the disease and its attendant consequences. In this paper, a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of the disease, which incorporates the impacts of the various implemented control measures, is presented. Based on the proposed model, the disease’s basic reproduction number (R0) was derived and the equilibrium solutions were determined. It was shown that whenever R0 \(\le\) 1, the model has only the disease-free equilibrium which is globally stable while in circumstances where R0 > 1, there exists an endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. When the latter equilibrium state exists, the former becomes unstable. In addition, the model parameters were estimated using Nigeria’s demographic and COVID-19 surveillance data.
The model is simulated for different scenarios of the disease outbreak and the results suggest that the disease will die out quickly in the population if about half of the population adhere to personal protection, about half of exposed individuals are efficiently traced and about half of symptomatic individuals are promptly isolated and treated.