Open AccessSpatial and Temporal Simulation of Typhoid Fever Transmission in Yobe State
Author(s) -
Babagana Modu,
Sheriff Wakil,
Umar Yusuf Madaki,
Audu Musa Mabu
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
asian journal of probability and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2582-0230
DOI - 10.9734/ajpas/2022/v16i530411
Subject(s) - typhoid fever , transmission (telecommunications) , seasonality , wet season , geography , environmental science , statistics , computer science , medicine , mathematics , virology , cartography , telecommunications
Aims / Objectives: Typhoid fever is a threat to human race and perhaps not much research is conducted towards mitigating it menace in Yobe State. A classical epidemic model SIR is deployed into GLEaMviz software to simulate typhoid spread and spatially analysed the trend.
Study Design: Computational modeling and simulation.
Place and Duration of Study: Computational Laboratory, Department of Mathematics and Statistics Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The duration of the study is between May 2021 and December 2021.
Methodology: SIR epidemic model was used to simulate typhoid spread and time series model was explored to investigate the disease trend.
Results: The model predicts mild seasonal fluctuations in the trend which coincides with rainy season. The agents causing the disease transmission is possibly being transported through flowing water.
Conclusion: A mild seasonality is present in the fluctuations of the trend of typhoid, hence the pattern shows strong evidence of perennial tendency with likelihood of high cases during rainy season. Further work is needed to validate this findings by using real data.