Open AccessThe preliminary research about the precursory signals of abrupt climate change based on critical slowing down phenomenon
Author(s) -
Wu Hao,
Hou Wei,
Peng Yan,
Guolin Feng
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
wuli xuebao
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.199
H-Index - 47
ISSN - 1000-3290
DOI - 10.7498/aps.61.209202
Subject(s) - climate change , abrupt climate change , autocorrelation , warning system , environmental science , regime shift , climatology , phenomenon , climate system , pacific decadal oscillation , el niño southern oscillation , global warming , geology , physics , effects of global warming , mathematics , oceanography , statistics , computer science , quantum mechanics , telecommunications , ecology , ecosystem , biology
In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.