Open AccessEpidemic spreading in complex networks with spreading delay based on cellular automata
Author(s) -
Yaqi Wang,
Guoping Jiang
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
wuli xuebao
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.199
H-Index - 47
ISSN - 1000-3290
DOI - 10.7498/aps.60.080510
Subject(s) - cellular automaton , computer science , epidemic model , outbreak , extinction probability , process (computing) , extinction (optical mineralogy) , field (mathematics) , stochastic cellular automaton , statistical physics , mathematics , physics , algorithm , virology , demography , biology , optics , population , sociology , population size , pure mathematics , operating system
In this paper, based on the cellular automata, we propose a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model to study epidemic spreading in the networks with spreading delay. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the existence of spreading delay can significantly reduce the epidemic threshold and enhance the risk of outbreak of epidemics. It is also found that both the epidemic prevalence and the propagation velocity increase obviously with the spreading delay increasing. Moreover, the SIS model proposed in this paper describes not only the average propagation tendency of epidemics, but also the dynamic evolution process over the time of epidemics and the probability events such as outbreak and extinction of epidemics, and thus can overcome the limitations of the differential equation model based on mean-field method that describes only the average transmitting tendency of epidemics. Meanwhile, some suggestions of how to effectively control the propagation of epidemics are presented.