Open AccessPotential impacts of global warming on extreme warm month events in China
Author(s) -
Wan Shi-Quan,
Sheng Wang,
Guolin Feng,
Wenping He,
Wang Chan-Juan,
Guohua Zhou
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
wuli xuebao
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.199
H-Index - 47
ISSN - 1000-3290
DOI - 10.7498/aps.58.5083
Subject(s) - plateau (mathematics) , climatology , china , environmental science , global warming , quantile , monsoon , spatial distribution , climate change , common spatial pattern , east asian monsoon , climate model , physical geography , geography , geology , oceanography , mathematical analysis , statistics , remote sensing , mathematics , archaeology , economics , econometrics
In this study the average monthly data anomalies of 1960-2007 for 740 stations in China were analyzed. This research uses EVT extreme value theory to explore the spatial EWME extreme warm month events properties in China. The effects of potentially explanatory factors - climate warming on the distribution of EWME are investigated using GPD model with parameters estimated via a spatial scheme. The results showed that: 1 The properties of EWME have strong spatial dependence. The EWME have smaller variability over Tibetan plateau and North China plain and the coastal area of South China, while the EWME have larger variability over North China. There are more EWME with higher quantile over Middle-lower Yangtze area than that over the other regions. 2 The stations have the return period of the 2002 EWME with 3-5 centigrade longer than 10 years, and some grids have the return period longer than 50 years for EWME with 5-7 centigrade. 3 It has a potential relationship between regional climate warming and the EWME over some of special region. The variability and high quantile of the EWME are affected obviously by climate warming over Tibetan plateau plain and North China plain and northeast China plain, namely over the regions between monsoons on and non-monsoons.