Open AccessMonte Carlo simulation of the record-breaking high temperature events of climate changes
Author(s) -
Xiong Kai-Guo,
Guolin Feng,
Hu Jing-Guo,
Wan Shi-Quan,
Jie Yang
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
wuli xuebao
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.199
H-Index - 47
ISSN - 1000-3290
DOI - 10.7498/aps.58.2843
Subject(s) - monte carlo method , autocorrelation , global warming , climate change , temperature record , intensity (physics) , environmental science , mean radiant temperature , climatology , atmospheric sciences , statistics , physics , geology , mathematics , oceanography , quantum mechanics
Using MonteCarlo method, the law of statistics of recordbreaking high temperature events has been investigated based on the statistical characteristics of the temperature data registered in 40 years from 1961 to 2000 in Nanjing area, and the influence on the law of statistics of the global warming =0.006?℃/a during 20th century and Nanjing regional warming =0.017?℃/a in last 40 years has also been compared. Both the theoretic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation results show that the most likely probability of its occurrence intensity of the kth recordbreaking high temperature events takes the form of linear increase with k k=1,2,3,\:, and the frequency of the occurrence of recordbreaking high temperature events in a year tends to 1/t+1, decreasing with time t, and in years when the average temperature is high, the probability of the occurrence of recordbreaking high temperature events is also high, otherwise, the probability is low. The result also indicates that the velocity of global warming =0.006?℃/a in 20th century and the rate of regional warming =0.017?℃/a of Nanjing area in last 40 years are yet insufficient to alter meaningfully the intensity and frequency of record high temperature events. However, such velocity of warming will ultimately make the frequency of the occurrence of recordbreaking high temperature events decrease gradually towards a constant, being approximately equal to the warming velocities. In addition, we have also studied the effect of variances and autocorrelation between temperatures in two successive days on recordbreaking high temperature eventsfinding that the effect of different variance and weak autocorrelation on the intensity and probability of occurrence of the recordbreaking high temperature events in a year can be neglected.