Open AccessCorrelation Between Freight Transport Industry and Economic Growth – Panel Analysis of CEE Countries
Author(s) -
Siniša Vilke,
Davor Mance,
Borna Debelić,
Marinko Maslarić
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
promet
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1848-4069
pISSN - 0353-5320
DOI - 10.7307/ptt.v33i4.3688
Subject(s) - granger causality , causation , econometrics , autocorrelation , economics , panel data , null hypothesis , value (mathematics) , causality (physics) , statistical hypothesis testing , european union , variable (mathematics) , economy , statistics , international trade , mathematics , mathematical analysis , physics , quantum mechanics , political science , law
The paper tests for statistical association between employment and value added of freight transport industry and its component activities against overall economy in a ten-year panel ranging from 2008 to 2017 of the thirteen newest European Union member countries. In this paper, the nature of correlation between economic growth as the independent variable and freight transport industry as a dependent variable is examined. To achieve stationarity, and to lose autocorrelation and the idiosyncratic effects, the variables are first differenced. The results of the “Granger causality” tests show the null hypothesis of no-causation may be rejected for most conjectures with high F-Statistics as well as high statistical significance. The results of the Panel EGLS cross-section fixed effects do not reject the results gained by the Granger test, and the same may be said for the Panel Generalised Method of Moments First Differences test. The result of the Arellano-Bond test shows no serial correlation in the residuals. It has been concluded that changes in overall economy (value added and employment) have a significant and measurably strong impact on freight transportation and warehousing sector. This conclusion is useful in assessing future impacts on freight transport industry, especially as a consequence of contingent events.