Open AccessThe Use of Expert Judgement Methods for Deriving Accident Probabilities in Aviation
Author(s) -
Benedikt Badánik,
Martin Janossy,
Arthur Dijkstra
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
promet
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1848-4069
pISSN - 0353-5320
DOI - 10.7307/ptt.v33i2.3634
Subject(s) - aviation , accident (philosophy) , aviation safety , judgement , risk analysis (engineering) , aviation accident , computer science , event (particle physics) , operations research , engineering , business , philosophy , physics , epistemology , quantum mechanics , political science , law , aerospace engineering
Improving safety has always been the top interest in the aviation industry. The outcomes of safety and risk analyses have become much more thorough and sophisticated. They have become an industry standard of safety investigations in many airlines nowadays. In the past, airlines were much more limited in answering the questions about hazardous situations, accident probabilities, and accident rates. Airlines try hard to cope with stricter safety standards. The objective of this paper is to find out and quantify the extent of the expert judgment in helping airlines in the evaluation of the Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) events. On top of that, the paper reveals the method for a careful choice of experts, so that their estimations will maximize the potential of an accurate and useful outcome. Also, the paper provides details of implementation of the classical model into this research, then continues with the calculations and visualization of the outcomes. The outcomes are probability distributions per each aircraft type, then per IATA accident type and finally per FDM event.