Open AccessCEREALS SEED LIFECYCLE
Author(s) -
Sergej Goncharov
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
agrofor
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2490-3442
pISSN - 2490-3434
DOI - 10.7251/agreng1701125g
Subject(s) - listing (finance) , variety (cybernetics) , agricultural science , margin (machine learning) , new variety , business , agricultural economics , agronomy , cultivar , economics , mathematics , biology , statistics , computer science , finance , machine learning
Cereals seed lifecycle is considered as duration of a variety commercial use, orperiod of having margin from variety market introduction till its withdrawal fromthe market. In most of cases, it coincides with average period of variety listing. Butavailable National Registers includes list of approved varieties, and don’t keeptracks about withdrawal ones. The article goal was to check author's methodologyof calculation of actual cereals seed lifecycle. National Registers of Commonwealthof Independent State (CIS) countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine)compare to German Bundesortenamt were used as data base. It was assumedthatnumber of varieties, been listing within five years period, is constant; thereforeshare of listed varieties in older groups shows probability of a variety listing withinany group. It was found, that winter wheat seed commercialization period lastsabout 24 years in Kazakhstan, 14 in Russia, 13 in Germany, 12in Ukraine and 9inBelarus. Similar trends are calculated in other cereals (spring oat, spring wheat,spring barley, and winter rye). The higher yields are, the shorter variety lifecycle,the better seed exchange rate (certified seeds share), and even return of breedinginvestments. Seed lifecycle is under influence of such factors as average cropmultiplication rate, seeding rate, crop margin, yields, operational risks, acreage,etc. Markets of high marginal crops with shorter seed lifecycle are attractive forinternational seed companies expansion.