Open AccessMULTI-COUNTRY DEMAND FORECASTING FOR A COMPANY IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR, BASED ON EXTERNAL MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES EXTRACTED FROM OPEN DATA SOURCES
Author(s) -
Lorena Polo,
MARTA SARASA RUBIO,
David Ciprés,
DAVID ESCUIN FINOL
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
dyna management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2340-6585
DOI - 10.6036/mn10356
Subject(s) - demand forecasting , univariate , multivariate statistics , order (exchange) , computer science , econometrics , key (lock) , economic forecasting , operations research , economics , finance , engineering , machine learning , computer security
Demand forecasting is a very important feature in companies since it provides valuable information for taking decisions about planning, pricing and business growth strategies. In this paper, multi-country demand forecasting for a company of the construction industry is carried out. In the case study, we analyze different external variables from open data sources of each country in order to reduce uncertainty in demand forecasting. The analysis is carried out with different univariate and multivariate methods. The results show how the consideration of external variables improves the forecasts. Finally, forecasts of different kinds of demand are evaluated using Syntetos, Boylan and Croston classification methodology.Key words: Demand forecasting, forecast models, multivariate methods, accuracy indicators