Опыт геоситуационного моделирования прибрежно-морских систем

The article summarizes years of experience of geosituational modelling of coastal marine systems in the Baltic Sea region and adjacent territories. Kaliningrad universities and academic institutions have done extensive research on the diversity of approaches and models of the regional geosituations as well as on identifying the most promising coastal marine areas. Some of the models presented in the present paper are qualitative, while others are empirical and statistical ones. However, the majority of the models can be referred to as forms of graphic and image mapping. The significance of the regional models lies in their specificity, a more detailed character (compared to the generalist ones) and the possibility of using them to back up managerial decisions in critical and emergency situations in order to minimize the negative effects of natural (storms, floods, earthquakes, etc.) and anthropogenic emergency situations. The authors developed a matrix classification attributable to a particular class of models for the situations leading to uncertain outcomes. The authors suggest using numerical methods combined with the empirical and statistical models for the assessment of the impact of industrial fishing on marine environment, minimizing the consequences of storms, floods and others factors. Special attention is paid to the modelling of climate change and geo-ecological consequences, as well as to atlas mapping and landscape planning. As a result of the geosituational analysis the authors got new insights into the solar-terrestrial links, marine-terrestrial ecosystems, global and regional processes related to climate change, oceanization, the vulnerability of natural systems under the increasing pressure of anthropogenic activities, and continuously increasing risks presented by industrial agriculture and other types of land use.\u