Open AccessCrises and Chances: Year 2015, the first year of the “Taiwan Aging Power Era”
Author(s) -
Ya-ling Kao,
Shavonne Lin
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
international journal of automation and smart technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.148
H-Index - 10
ISSN - 2223-9766
DOI - 10.5875/ausmt.v1i1.97
Subject(s) - dependency ratio , population , population ageing , population growth , population projection , projections of population growth , point (geometry) , demographic economics , economic growth , demography , business , geography , economics , sociology , mathematics , geometry
The birthrate in Taiwan is decreasing yearly. As a result the aging population problem is getting drastically worse. According to “Population Projections for R.O.C (Taiwan): 2010–2060”, the population growth rate will become negative after the total population peaks at 23.44 million in 2022. Does this mean that Taiwan will still be able to enjoy the benefits of population growth for the next 11 years, including a sufficient labor force to support Taiwanese industries during that period of time? Unfortunately, the answer may be “no”. The problem is that over the next 11 years the population of Taiwan will change not only in terms of “amount”, but also in terms of “quality”. Almost every country in Asia will encounter this common issue soon.According to “Taiwanese Future Population Projection (the medium-variant)” released by the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in September, 2010, the dependency ratio in the population will reach its lowest point (34%) (turning point) in 2015. The dependency ration is the number of people aged 1–14 and those aged 65 and over, divided by the number of people aged 15–64. After the turning point in 2015, the more people who are dependent, the larger the dependent ratio will become and the heavier the burden of support for the labor forces in Taiwan will be.The labor force in Taiwan’s primary, secondary and tertiary industries will all be directly impacted by the country’s low birthrate and rapidly aging population. If one looks at the labor statistics in these three industry sectors prior to 2015, and then one takes the projected dependency ratio and uses it to project the labor force available to the three industry sectors from 2015 to 2035, one can see that there is a significant impact.This impact will be explored in detail in this paper, as well as the idea that this change in the dependency ratio may also prove to be an opportunity for the automatic technology industry in Taiwan. The opportunities for businesses to capitalize on this demographic shift will occur not only in Taiwan, but throughout Asia