Open AccessA mathematical model for residential planning in Richards Bay
Author(s) -
M.J. Joubert
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
orion/orion
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2224-0004
pISSN - 0259-191X
DOI - 10.5784/1-1-513
Subject(s) - sensitivity (control systems) , bay , interval (graph theory) , population , econometrics , computer science , operations research , environmental science , statistics , mathematics , geography , demography , archaeology , engineering , sociology , combinatorics , electronic engineering
The formulation of a systems dynamics model which was applied to obtain forecasts of important urban variables such as population and housing, is discussed. It is shown that the model simulated the growth trends in the town, at least for the period for which data was available, satisfactorily. A sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out and no sensitive parameters were identified during the 6 year simulation interval. An optimisation strategy by which the occupation rate of housing was restricted to certain limits, is also discussed