VARIÁVEIS QUE SUSTENTAM O PERÍODO ATUAL DE PRODUÇÃO DE BIOETANOL

The production of bioethanol in Brazil has received a big boost in recent years. The figures show that production jumped from just over 10 billion liters in the early 2000s to 27.5 billion liters in 2009. In the 1970s, the production of bioethanol had a similar impulse, but fell into crisis after 1986. In the face of this, questions arose: Might the production of bioethanol enter into a crisis similar to that which occurred in the Alcohol Program (Proálcool)? What variables that underpin the current period of bioethanol production are different from those that supported the Alcohol Program? The aim of this paper was to identify variables which, from the perspectives of key players in the chain of bioethanol production in the microregion of Piracicaba-SP, caused the crisis of Proálcool, and to see if there are variables that can sustain the current growth. The research, which was quantitative, was performed with agents that produce and distribute the product. It was found that two variables caused the crisis of the Alcohol Program: the falling price of oil and little international interest in ethanol. And six variables, i.e. flex-fuel vehicle sales, agreements to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to slow global warming that are driving the substitution of gasoline for ethanol, new technologies such as the use of bagasse for the production of alcohol and electricity, the experience amassed from the Alcohol Program, legal requirements for adding alcohol to gasoline in many countries and international interest in Brazilian ethanol, which were not present at the time of the Alcohol Program, are sustaining the growth of bioethanol production in Brazil today. Thus, we conclude that, from the perspective of those involved with the industry, the production of ethanol fuel will not slow, as occurred in the period of the Alcohol Program