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Ten‐year incidence of diabetes in older Australians: the Blue Mountains Eye Study
Author(s) -
Cugati Sudha,
Wang Jie Jin,
Rochtchina Elena,
Mitchell Paul
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
medical journal of australia
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.904
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1326-5377
pISSN - 0025-729X
DOI - 10.5694/j.1326-5377.2007.tb00836.x
Subject(s) - medicine , diabetes mellitus , impaired fasting glucose , incidence (geometry) , metabolic syndrome , cumulative incidence , odds ratio , population , obesity , impaired glucose tolerance , type 2 diabetes , endocrinology , cohort , environmental health , physics , optics
Objective: To estimate the incidence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and increased risk associated with the metabolic syndrome, in a representative population‐based sample of older Australians. Design, setting and participants: The Blue Mountains Eye Study examined 3654 residents aged 49 + years (82.4% response rate) during 1992–1994, and re‐examined 2335 (75.1% of survivors) during 1997–1999 and 1952 (75.6% of survivors) during 2002–2004; 2123 participants with normal blood glucose levels at baseline were considered at risk of developing incident diabetes. Main outcome measures: Incident diabetes (or IFG) was defined in participants at risk who were newly diagnosed by a physician during the follow‐up or found to have a fasting blood glucose level ≥ 7.0 mmol/L (or 5.6–6.9 mmol/L). Kaplan–Meier cumulative 10‐year incidence was calculated. Results: The overall 10‐year incidence of diabetes and IFG was 9.3% and 15.8%, respectively. Participants with metabolic syndrome at baseline had a higher risk of incident diabetes than those without metabolic syndrome (29.2% v 8.6%). Baseline factors associated with incident diabetes were elevated fasting glucose level (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.5; 95% CI, 3.4–6.1 per mmol/L), obesity (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3–2.8), diabetes family history (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2–2.5), current smoking (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0–2.7) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol level < 1.0 mmol/L (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.5–3.8). Similar baseline factors were associated with incident IFG. Conclusion: This population‐based study provides data on the incidence of diabetes and IFG in an older, predominantly white population, and confirms that metabolic and lifestyle factors are major risk factors for diabetes.