Open AccessAnalysis of A Coendemic Model of COVID-19 and Dengue Disease
Author(s) -
Hilda Fahlena,
Widya Oktaviana,
Farida Farida,
Sudirman Sudirman,
Nuning Nuraini,
Edy Soewono
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
communication in biomathematical sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2549-2896
DOI - 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.2.5
Subject(s) - dengue fever , pandemic , covid-19 , transmission (telecommunications) , basic reproduction number , bifurcation , transmission rate , virology , disease , geography , biology , medicine , physics , environmental health , population , nonlinear system , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , telecommunications , pathology , quantum mechanics
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread aggressively worldwide, infecting more than 170 million people with confirmed cases, including more than 3 million deaths. This pandemic is increasingly exacerbating the burden on tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to the pre-existing dengue fever, which has become endemic for a longer period in the same region. Co-circulation dengue and COVID-19 cases have been found and confirmed in several countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for the coendemic of COVID-19 and dengue is proposed. The basic reproduction ratio is obtained, which is related to the four equilibria, disease-free, endemic-COVID-19, endemic-dengue, and coendemic equilibria. Stability analysis is done for the first three equilibria. Furthermore, a condition for coexistence equilibrium is obtained, which gives a condition for bifurcation analysis. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain a stable limit-cycle resulting from two Hopf bifurcation points with dengue transmission rate and COVID-19 transmission rate as the bifurcation parameter, representing a stable periodic coexistence of dengue and COVID-19 transmission. We identify the period of limit cycle decreases after reaching the maximum value.