Open AccessAn Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia
Author(s) -
Meksianis Z. Ndii,
Panji Fortuna Hadisoemarto,
Dwi Agustian,
Asep K. Supriatna
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
communication in biomathematical sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2549-2896
DOI - 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.3
Subject(s) - outbreak , transmission rate , transmission (telecommunications) , covid-19 , extinction probability , pandemic , basic reproduction number , intervention (counseling) , epidemic model , coronavirus , geography , statistics , computer science , virology , medicine , environmental health , telecommunications , mathematics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , population , pathology , psychiatry , population size
An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that speeding up the time to detect infected individuals without reducing the transmission rate is not sufficient to slow down the epidemics.