Open AccessAnalyzing the Role of the Permanent and Temporary Shocks in Peru Using the Co-Movements Approach
Author(s) -
César R. Sobrino
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of economics and finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1916-9728
pISSN - 1916-971X
DOI - 10.5539/ijef.v13n11p111
Subject(s) - per capita , economics , consumption (sociology) , investment (military) , shock (circulatory) , commodity , monetary economics , demographic economics , macroeconomics , demography , population , finance , medicine , social science , sociology , politics , political science , law
In this study, we use the co-movements approach to examine the role of permanent (common trend) and temporary (common cycle) shocks on per capita output, per capita consumption, and per capita investment in Peru, a small open commodity-based economy. Using quarterly data from 1993: Q1 to 2019: Q1, the effects of the temporary shocks are short-lived, and, on average, are a minor source of the variations of macro time series, over 10 quarters. This evidence suggests that the main source of per capita output and per capita consumption variations is the common trend shock which must be related to the 1990s reforms. Moreover, per capita output and per capita consumption are less responsive to unfavorable (favorable) common cycle shocks than per capita investment is. This outcome indicates that per capita investment has a much more volatile cycle than per capita private output and per capita consumption which is consistent with a previous empirical work.