Open AccessForecasting of wheat yield in various agro-climatic regions of Bihar by using CERES-Wheat model
Author(s) -
Priyanka Singh,
K. K. Singh,
Priyanka Singh,
R. Balasubramanian,
A. K. Baxla,
Birendra Kumar,
Akhilesh Gupta,
L. S. Rathore,
Naveen Kalra
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of agrometeorology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.295
H-Index - 11
eISSN - 2583-2980
pISSN - 0972-1665
DOI - 10.54386/jam.v19i4.604
Subject(s) - yield (engineering) , sowing , crop , crop simulation model , crop yield , environmental science , agronomy , simulation modeling , cultivar , mathematics , agricultural engineering , engineering , biology , materials science , mathematical economics , metallurgy
Forecasting yield of crops is important for planners in taking tactical decisions for ensuring food availability. Crop simulation models are useful tool to forecast the crop yield. The CERES-wheat model calibrated and validated with experimental data was used to predict the district wise yield in Bihar. Based on the areas under different dates of sowing and crop cultivars, a correction factor was applied on simulated yield to predict the district wise and regional wheat yield. The simulated yield were higher than the actual yield in all the three agro-climatic zones, while the forecasted yields were very close to actual. The percentage deviation of the forecasted yield from the actual was ±4.0 %. The results clearly indicated that the CERES-Wheat model can be used to regional production estimates of wheat in Bihar.