Open AccessCOVID-19 in Londrina-PR: SEIR Model with Parameter Optimization
Author(s) -
Eliandro Rodrigues Cirilo,
Paulo Laerte Natti,
Pedro Henrique Valério de Godoi,
Andina A Lerma,
Vitor Matias,
Neyva Maria Lopes Romeiro
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
semina. ciências exatas e tecnológicas
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1679-0375
pISSN - 1676-5451
DOI - 10.5433/1679-0375.2021v42n1suplp45
Subject(s) - covid-19 , moment (physics) , credibility , ordinary differential equation , transmission (telecommunications) , work (physics) , econometrics , disease , computer science , mathematics , statistics , differential equation , medicine , virology , physics , infectious disease (medical specialty) , mathematical analysis , law , political science , outbreak , pathology , telecommunications , classical mechanics , thermodynamics
The first cases of COVID-19 in Londrina-PR were manifested in March 2020 and the disease lasts until the present moment. We aim to inform citizens in a scientific way about how the disease spreads. The present work seeks to describe the behavior of the disease over time. We started from a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations like SEIR to find relevant information such as: transmission rates and prediction of the peak of infected people. We used the data released by city hall of Londrina to carry out simulations in periods of 14 days, applying a parameter optimization technique to obtain results with thegreatest possible credibility.