Track, intensity and few dynamical aspects of ‘AILA’ as simulated by operational NWP model of the IAF

bl 'kks/k i= esa Hkkjrh; ok;q lsuk ds izpkyukRed ,u- MCY;w- ih- ekWMy dh {kerk dk ebZ 2009 esa caxky dh [kkM+h esa cus vkSj if’pe caxky dks izHkkfor djus okys izpaM pØokrh; rwQku ^vk;yk^ ds dqN xR;kRed igyqvksa] mlds ekxZ] rhozrk ,oa LFky izos’k ds iwokZuqeku dk fo’ys"k.k djus dk iz;kl fd;k x;k gSA bl ekWMy dks 6 fd- eh- ds NksVs Hkkx esa diklh izkpyhdj.k ;kstuk ds lkFk vkSj mlds fcuk bl ;kstuk dk iz;ksx djds ns[kk x;k gSA ckjh ckjh ls fd, x, nksuksa iz;ksxksa ds lsV esa Mh&2 ij rS;kj fd, x, iwokZuqeku dh rqyuk esa Mh&1 ds iwokZuqeku vis{kk—r csgrj vkSj vkf/kd lgh ik, x,A diklh izkpyhdj.k ds iSVUlZ foyac ls laogu iSnk djrs gSa ijUrq bl iSVUlZ ds fcuk rS;kj fd, ifj.kke dh rqyuk esa vf/kd lgh gSA 6 fd-eh- ds NksVs Hkkx esa diklh izkpyhdj.k ;kstuk ds fcuk jsMkj dh ijkofrZrk Mh- MCY;w- vkj- dksydkrk ds okLrfod ijkofrZrk le; vkSj LFkku nksuksa dh rqyuk esa vf/kdre ns[kh xbZ gSA An attempt has been made in this study to analyse the efficacy of operational NWP Model of the IAF in predicting the track, intensity, landfall and few dynamical aspects of ‘AILA’ a Severe Cyclonic Storm that formed over the Bay of Bengal and affected West Bengal during May 2009. Model runs were done with and without employment of cumulus parameterisation scheme in the finer domain of 6 km. The forecasts of D-1 were relatively better and more realistic in comparison to the one generated on D-2, in both sets of experiment, respectively. Patterns with cumulus parameterisation produced delayed convection but with finer details in comparison to the patterns generated without it. Maximum radar reflectivity without using cumulus parameterisation scheme in the finer domain of 6 km, compared well with the actual reflectivity of Kolkata DWR both in time and space.