Open AccessQPF Model for lower Yamuna catchment, synoptic analogue method
Author(s) -
Mehfooz Ali,
Uttam Singh,
D. Joardar
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
mausam
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 0252-9416
DOI - 10.54302/mausam.v62i1.199
Subject(s) - quantitative precipitation forecast , precipitation , climatology , monsoon , environmental science , flood myth , drainage basin , meteorology , geography , geology , cartography , archaeology
The paper formulates a synoptic analogue model for issuing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Lower Yamuna Catchment (LYC) based upon eleven years data (1998-2008) during southwest monsoon season. The results so derived were verified with realized Average Areal Precipitation (AAP) for the corresponding synoptic situation during 2009 southwest monsoon season. The performance of the model was observed Percentage Correct (PC) up to 86 % and for extreme events showed 100% correct with Heidke Skill Score (HSS) value 0.9. The experience during south west monsoon 2009 has shown that Synoptic analogue model can produce 24 hours advance QPF with accuracy and greater skill to facilitate the flood forecasters of Central Water Commission.