Open AccessEvaluation of bias free rainfall forecasts and Kalman filtered temperature forecasts of T-80 model over Indian monsoon region
Author(s) -
Rashmi Bhardwaj,
Ashok Kumar,
Parvinder Maini
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
mausam
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.243
H-Index - 12
ISSN - 0252-9416
DOI - 10.54302/mausam.v60i2.1066
Subject(s) - climatology , model output statistics , environmental science , forecast skill , quantitative precipitation forecast , meteorology , kalman filter , global forecast system , numerical weather prediction , weather forecasting , range (aeronautics) , econometrics , precipitation , mathematics , statistics , geography , geology , engineering , aerospace engineering
A forecasting system for obtaining objective medium range location specific forecast of surface weather elements is evolved at National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). The basic information used for this is the output from the general circulation models (GCMs) T-80/T-254 operational at NCMRWF. The most essential component of the system is Direct Model Output (DMO) forecast. This is explained in brief. Direct Model Output (DMO) forecast is obtained from the predicted surface weather elements from the GCM. The two important weather parameters considered in detail are rainfall and temperature. Both the weather parameters have biases. While the bias from the rainfall is reduced by adopting bias removal technique based upon threshold values for rainfall and for removing bias from temperature forecast a two parameter Kalman filter is applied. The techniques used for getting bias free forecast are explained in detail. Finally an evaluation of the forecast skill for the Kalman filtered temperature forecast and bias free rainfall forecast during monsoon 2007 is presented.