MM5 simulation of the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone : Impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction

lkj & bl v/;;u esa 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk ds rV ij vk, egkpØokr ds izfr:i.k ds fy, ,u- lh- ,- vkj@ih- ,l- ;w-  ,e- ,e- 5 eslksLdsy fun’kZ ¼xzsy bR;kfn 1995½ dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gsA bl fun’kZ esa pØokr dh izkjafHkd voLFkk vkSj mldh ifjlhekvksa dh voLFkkvksa ds :i  esa jk"Vªh; e/;&vof/k ekSle iwokZuqeku dsUnz Vh- 80 ds izpkyukRed fo’ys"k.kksa dk iz;ksx fd;k x;k gS vkSj rwQku dh vof/k esa 3 fnu rd dk iwokZuqeku rS;kj djus ds fy, bl fun’kZ dks 72 ?kaVs dh vof/k ds fy, lekdfyr fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u dk mn~ns’; pØokr ds ekxZ ij dfYir Hkzfey ds izHkko dk ewY;kadu djuk vkSj pØokr dh rhozrk dk iwokZuqeku yxkuk gSA In this study NCAR/PSU MM5 mesoscale model (Grell et al. 1995) is used to simulate the super cyclone that struck the Orissa coast on 29th October 1999. The model makes use of the operational NCMRWF T 80 analysis as initial and boundary conditions and is integrated up to 72 hr for producing 3-day forecast of the storm. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction.