On forecasting cyclone movement using TOVS data

The tracks of three cyclonic storms over Bay of Bengal and one over Arabian Sea during 1998 have been analysed using the TOVS data  received at Chennai from NOAA satellites. Midtropospheric warmness between 700 and 400 hPa levels which protrudes about 300 to 700 km ahead of the storm acts as precursor to foreshadow the storm movement and predict the landfall about 6 to 24 hrs in advance. This technique has successfully predicted even the peculiar southward movement of Bay storm (28 November  to 7 December, 1996).