Open AccessMinimum temperature forecasting by stochastic techniques : An evidence of the heat island effect
Author(s) -
Eduardo Hernández,
Ricardo A. C. Garcia,
M. T. Teso
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
mausam
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.243
H-Index - 12
ISSN - 0252-9416
DOI - 10.54302/mausam.v42i2.3072
Subject(s) - meteorology , econometrics , urban heat island , environmental science , climatology , computer science , operations research , geography , geology , mathematics
This paper deals mainly with the forecasting of minimum temperatures (Tm) from an stochastic viewpoint. Some appropriate theoretical considerations lead to a choice of those variables significant connected to Tm. Modelling has been carried out for two nearby observatories, one in the centre of Madrid, the other one in the border (Barajas airport). The obtained models allow to show that the significant variables are the same for both locations, but performance in the peripheral area is of a rather inferior quality. It is shown, taking into account the characteristics of both places, that the difference between them can be allotted to the heat-island effect in the centre of Madrid.