Statistical relations between winter monsoon Rainfall and the preceding summer monsoon

The mean monthly wind vectors at 7 standard isobaric levels and surface parameters of several stations of the summer (southwest) monsoon months of June to September over India have been examined. The objective was to select predictors for the northeast monsoon rainfall of the Indian Peninsular subdivisions of TamilNadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayal3seema. The data for a 33-year period (1951-83) were used in this study. A sequence of screening tests were employed to select reliable predictors for these subdivisions. It has been shown that the August-September 150 mb zonal mean wind of Trivandrum is capable of giving satisfactory forecasts for the following northeast monsoon rainfall of Tamilnadu. The constraints in using multiple predictors have been discussed.