Open AccessMulti-criteria analysis to compare multiple risks associated with management alternatives in planted forests
Author(s) -
Margot Régolini,
Ander Arias-González,
Manuela Branco,
Céline Meredieu,
Hervé Jactel,
Alejandro Cantero Amiano,
Amélie Castro,
Jean-Yves Fraysse,
Barry Gardiner,
Andrea Hevia,
Francisco José Lario,
Catherine Steffy Pater,
Roque RodríguezSoalleiro,
Paula Soares,
Christophe Orazio
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
forest systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.455
H-Index - 25
eISSN - 2171-9845
pISSN - 2171-5068
DOI - 10.5424/fs/2020292-15660
Subject(s) - hazard , ranking (information retrieval) , silviculture , forest management , pulpwood , business , forestry , agroforestry , environmental resource management , environmental science , geography , computer science , ecology , biology , machine learning
Aim of study: Adaptation of silviculture in planted forest may help to mitigate damage due to biotic and abiotic hazards. However, compromises have to be found because it is not possible to minimize the risk from all hazards through application of a single forest management approach. The objective of this study was to improve a multi-criteria risk analysis (MCRA) method that makes it possible to rank forest management alternatives (FMAs) according to multiple risks. Material and Methods: We defined eight FMAs for maritime pine forests in France, Spain and Portugal. We used as the definition of risk the combination of hazard, susceptibility and exposure. Hazard level was estimated using archive data on occurrence and severity of damaging agents over the last few decades. Forest susceptibility to hazards was evaluated by experts who scored the effect on stand resistance of eleven silvicultural operations characterizing each FMA. Exposure was estimated as value at stake, which combined forest standing volume, simulated with forest growth models, and wood prices.Main Results: Using the PROMETHEE algorithm, we found that the overall ranking of FMAs was consistent across all countries, with short rotation plantations to produce pulpwood or energy wood were the least at risk. The ranking was mainly driven by forest values at stake. We found that by improving the accuracy of forest values exposed to damage, based on growth models and representative wood prices, the MCRA outcomes were more useful and realistic.Research highlights: Our methodology provides a relevant framework to design FMAs that would minimize risks while maintaining income.Keywords: Pinus pinaster; vulnerability; hazards; growth modelling; expert assessment; wood price; southwestern Europe.