Open AccessEstimating Elasticities for Multi-Modal Public Transport Demand: A Time Series Approach
Author(s) -
Konstantina Gkritza,
Ioannis Golias,
Matthew G. Karlaftis
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
journal of the transportation research forum
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1046-1469
DOI - 10.5399/osu/jtrf.43.2.471
Subject(s) - public transport , econometrics , modal , time series , economics , modal shift , regression analysis , complement (music) , price elasticity of demand , demand side , transport engineering , series (stratigraphy) , seemingly unrelated regressions , microeconomics , engineering , statistics , mathematics , gene , phenotype , biochemistry , chemistry , complementation , polymer chemistry , paleontology , biology
Research on the demand side of public transportation systems with the use of time series data frequently shows conflicting results with respect to fare elasticities and the factors affecting it. In this analysis we complement prior research by developing seemingly unrelated regression equation models with monthly data for a city served by three different modes of public transportation. The results indicate that, as expected, urban public transport demand in Athens, Greece, is inelastic with respect to fares but, surprisingly, highly inelastic with respect to automobile fuel cost. Further, different transit modes have significantly different fare elasticities, a finding with important practical implications.