Open AccessClimate sensitivity in the northern high latitudes using the Brazilian Earth System Model
Author(s) -
Fernanda Casagrande,
Paulo Nobre,
Ronald Buss de Souza,
André Lanfer Marquez,
Noele Franchi Leonardo,
Rose Ane Pereira de Freitas,
Regiane Moura,
Vinícius Capistrano
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
conjeturas
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1657-5830
DOI - 10.53660/conj-260-107
Subject(s) - climatology , arctic , arctic sea ice decline , arctic geoengineering , sea ice , arctic ice pack , latitude , environmental science , climate change , arctic dipole anomaly , climate model , albedo (alchemy) , global warming , climate state , climate sensitivity , forcing (mathematics) , cryosphere , effects of global warming , oceanography , geology , antarctic sea ice , art , geodesy , performance art , art history
An expressive number of scientific publications including the recent IPCC-AR6 report have warned about the effects of the ongoing and the projected climate change in the northern high latitudes as response to CO2 forcing. Here we investigate the response of the Arctic region to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration using the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) and other three state-of-the-art Global Climate Model from the CMIP5 project. We evaluated the Arctic climate sensitivity through the Polar amplification using two numerical experiments: (i) piControl numerical experiment and (ii) abrupt 4xCO2. Our results showed that the northern high latitudes are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the world, with strongest warming occurring in winter (DJF) and autumn (SON). The Arctic climate sensitivity is linked to changes in sea ice extent and sea ice thickness. Considering this scenario, it is expected that the Arctic will become ice-free in summer time and covered only by first-year-sea ice in the remaining months. We suggest that the projected sea ice albedo feedback will reinforce the Arctic warming with lack of understanding effects beyond the Arctic region.