Open AccessEpidemiology of Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality in Brazil (1996- 2015): temporal modeling using inflection point regression
Author(s) -
João Paulo Silva de Paiva,
Jussara Almeida de Oliveira Baggio,
Thiago Cavalcanti Leal,
Leonardo Feitosa da Silva,
Lucas Gomes Santos,
Rodrigo Feliciano do Carmo,
Gibson Barros de Almeida Santana,
Amanda Karine Barros Ferreira de Araújo,
Carlos Alberto de Oliveira Rocha,
Thaís Silva Matos,
Anderson da Costa Armstrong,
Renato de Souza Mariano,
Carlos Dornels Freire de Souza
Publication year - 2021
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Conference proceedings
DOI - 10.5327/1516-3180.094
Subject(s) - demography , confidence interval , epidemiology , epidemiological transition , mortality rate , multivariate statistics , regression analysis , inflection point , medicine , ecological study , population , human development index , geography , statistics , mathematics , human development (humanity) , geometry , sociology , political science , law
Background: cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) are the second leading cause of death in the world. Objective: to analyze the trend of mortality from CVD in Brazil (1996-2015) and its association with the human development index (HDI) and the social vulnerability index (IVS). Methods: this is an ecological study involving mortality rates standardized by CVDD. Death data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. For temporal analyzes, the inflection point regression model was used, with the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), with a confidence interval of 95% and significance of 5%. The trends were classified as increasing, decreasing or stationary. The multivariate regression model was used to test the association between mortality from CVD, HDI and IVS. Results: 1,850,811 deaths due to CVD were recorded in the studied period. There was a reduction in the national mortality rate (APC:-2.4; p=0.001). Twenty federative units showed significant trends, 13 of which were decreasing, including all from the Midwest (n=4), Southeast (n=4) and South (n=3) regions. The HDI had a positive association and the IVS, a negative association with mortality (p=0.046 and p=0.026, respectively). Conclusion: the study showed an unequal epidemiological behavior of mortality among the regions, being higher in the states of the Southeast and South, but with a significant tendency to decrease, and lower in the states of the North and Northeast, but with a significant trend of growth. HDI and IVS were associated with mortality.