Open AccessSimulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany
Author(s) -
Phillip S. Parker,
Evelyn Reinmuth,
Joachim Ingwersen,
Petra Högy,
Eckart Priesack,
Hans-Dieter Wizemann,
Joachim Aurbacher
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of agricultural studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2166-0379
DOI - 10.5296/jas.v3i1.5956
Subject(s) - gross margin , variance (accounting) , crop yield , yield (engineering) , agriculture , offset (computer science) , rapeseed , margin (machine learning) , environmental science , agricultural economics , econometrics , economics , geography , agronomy , computer science , accounting , programming language , materials science , archaeology , machine learning , metallurgy , biology
Crop simulation is a modern tool used to mimic ordinary and extraordinary agriculture systems. Under the premise of continuing foreseeable climatic shift we combine adaptive field-level management decisions with their effects on crop performance. Price projections are used to examine yield and price effects on gross margins of the predominant crops in two specific regions of Southwest Germany into the coming decades. After calibration and validation to historic records, simulated future weather is used to explore how farmer behavior and performance of wheat, barley, rapeseed and maize could develop under anticipated global change. This development is examined based on a comparison of historic and projected gross margin variance. Simulations indicate that when yield levels increase, the relative variability of gross margins may decline in spite of some increasing variability of yields. The coefficient of variance of gross margins decreases even more due to the independence of price and yield fluctuations. This shows how the effects of global change on yields could be offset by economic conditions.