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Evaluating Company Failure in Malaysia Using Financial Ratios and Logistic Regression
Author(s) -
Ben Chin Fook Yap,
Shanmugam Munuswamy,
Zulkifflee Mohamed
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
asian journal of finance and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1946-052X
DOI - 10.5296/ajfa.v4i1.1752
Subject(s) - logistic regression , logit , boom , financial ratio , econometrics , financial crisis , regression analysis , predictive power , statistics , economics , actuarial science , business , finance , mathematics , engineering , macroeconomics , environmental engineering , philosophy , epistemology

This paper investigates the ability of logistic regression in anticipating corporate failures in Malaysia over a ten year period covering the economic cycles of boom, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and economic recovery. 64 companies were analyzed with an initial 16 financial ratios. A strong logit model was developed with four ratios found to be significant in its predictive power and classification results showed very high average accuracy rates of 88% and 90% for the analysis and the hold-out samples respectively and for each of the five years preceding the actual failure. This study also showed it does not need many ratios to be able to anticipate potential company failures and that even with more advanced statistical models used recently, logistic regression is still a very effective and reliable statistical tool.

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