Open AccessDevelopment of a hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence for project risk assessment problem
Author(s) -
Saad Muslet Albogami,
Mohd Khairol Anuar Bin Mohd Ariffin,
Eris Elianddy Supeni,
Kamarul Arifin Ahmad
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of project management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2371-8374
pISSN - 2371-8366
DOI - 10.5267/j.jpm.2021.10.003
Subject(s) - dempster–shafer theory , analytic hierarchy process , taguchi methods , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , risk assessment , operations research , mathematics , artificial intelligence , machine learning , business , computer security
In this paper, a new hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is presented for solving the problem of choosing the best project among a list of available alternatives while uncertain risk factors are taken into account. The aim is to minimize overall risks. For this purpose, four groups of risk factors, including Properties, Operational and Technological, Financial, Strategic risk factors, are considered. Then using an L24 Taguchi method, several experiments with various dimensions have been designed and solved by the proposed algorithm. The outcomes are then analyzed using the Validating Index (VI), Reduced Risk Indicator (R.R.I%), and Solving time. The findings indicated that, compared to the classic AHP, the results of the proposed hybrid method were different in most cases due to uncertainty of risk factors. It was observed that the method could be safely used for selecting project problems in real industries.