Open AccessТHE METHODOLOGY FOR INFLATION’ FORECASTING BY THE BANK OF RUSSIA IN THE MEDIUM TERM
Author(s) -
Natalya E. Tikhonyuk,
Elena Pomogalova
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
memlekettìk basķaru ža̋ne memlekettìk ķyzmet/gosudarstvennoe upravlenie i gosudarstvennaâ služba
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2959-0302
pISSN - 1994-2370
DOI - 10.52123/1994-2370-2021-223
Subject(s) - inflation (cosmology) , medium term , economics , term (time) , macro , econometrics , macroeconomics , core inflation , economic forecasting , vector autoregression , monetary policy , inflation targeting , computer science , physics , quantum mechanics , theoretical physics , programming language
The paper sets out to examine approaches to the forecasting of inflation by a macro market regulator. Various approaches to short-term inflation forecasting, inflation factors and their main channels of influence used by bank regulators in various countries are studied. The shortcomings of the used models for predicting inflation in the post-pandemic economy have been formulated. A comparative analysis of the use of various models has been conducted and solutions for building forecasting models in the medium term have been proposed. The approach has been tested for regional inflation forecasting; calculations of the indicators using VAR model, SARIMA, and dynamic method have been presented. It is proposed to use extended combined VAR models supplemented with exogenous factors for medium-term forecasting.