Open AccessA robust phenomenological approach to investigate COVID-19 data for France
Author(s) -
Quentin Griette,
Jacques Demongeot,
Pierre Magal
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
mathematics in applied sciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2563-1926
DOI - 10.5206/mase/14031
Subject(s) - covid-19 , epidemic model , basic reproduction number , computer science , process (computing) , basis (linear algebra) , econometrics , mathematics , virology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , demography , biology , medicine , outbreak , population , geometry , disease , pathology , sociology , operating system
We provide a new method to analyze the COVID-19 cumulative reported cases data based on a two-step process: first we regularize the data by using a phenomenological model which takes into account the endemic or epidemic nature of the time period, then we use a mathematical model which reproduces the epidemic exactly. This allows us to derive new information on the epidemic parameters and to compute the effective basic reproductive ratio on a daily basis. Our method has the advantage of identifying robust trends in the number of new infectious cases and produces an extremely smooth reconstruction of the epidemic. The number of parameters required by the method is parsimonious: for the French epidemic between February 2020 and January 2021 we use only 11 parameters in total.