An empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks with application to Covid-19 | Zendy

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An empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks with application to Covid-19

Author(s) -

Bo Deng

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

mathematics in applied sciences and engineering

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

ISSN - 2563-1926

DOI - 10.5206/mase/11101

Subject(s) - covid-19 , outbreak , econometrics , computer science , epidemic model , statistics , mathematics , virology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , biology , environmental health , medicine , population , disease , pathology

In this paper we describe an empirical forecasting method for epidemic outbreaks. It is an iterative process to find possible parameter values for epidemic models to best fit real data. As a demonstration of principle, we used the logistic model, the simplest model in epidemiology, for an experiment of live forecasting. Short-term forecasts can last to 5 or more days with relative errors consistently kept blow 5%. The method should improve with more realistic models.

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