Open AccessDetermining the effectiveness of practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions in improving virus control in a pandemic using agent-based modelling
Author(s) -
Christian Alvin H. Buhat,
Steven Kyle Villanueva
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
mathematics in applied sciences and engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2563-1926
DOI - 10.5206/mase/10876
Subject(s) - social distance , pandemic , psychological intervention , duration (music) , population , outbreak , distancing , mortality rate , covid-19 , disease , medicine , infectious disease (medical specialty) , computer science , environmental health , demography , virology , nursing , sociology , art , literature , pathology
In order to determine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on an epidemic, we develop an agent-based model that simulates the spread of an infectious disease in a small community and its emerging phenomena. We vary parameters such as initial population, initial infected, infection rate, recovery rate, death rate, and asymptomatic rates, as inputs. Our simulations show that (i) random mass testing decreases the number of deaths, infections and time duration; (ii) as well as quarantines; (iii) social distancing lengthen outbreak period to an extent and helps flatten the epidemic curve; and (iv) the most effective combination of NPIs to minimize death, infection and duration is no mass testing, no social distancing and a total lockdown. Results of this study can aid decision makers in their policies to be implemented to have an optimal output.