Open AccessBayesian reasoning: connecting arithmetic, algebra and tree diagrams. A longitudinal research
Author(s) -
Cindy Morgado Hernández,
Gabriel Yáñez Canal
Publication year - 2015
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Conference proceedings
DOI - 10.52041/srap.15111
Subject(s) - tree diagram , bayes' theorem , tree (set theory) , test (biology) , recall , bayesian probability , computer science , algebraic number , bayesian network , mathematics , bayesian inference , algebra over a field , artificial intelligence , combinatorics , cognitive psychology , psychology , pure mathematics , posterior probability , paleontology , mathematical analysis , biology
This paper shows some of the results of the research conducted with the purpose of knowing the Bayesian reasoning of college students doing their first course in probability and statistics. For this there three tests that were designed and implemented at different times during the semester. The results showed three stages in the reasoning of the students: the first, which coincides with the first test, is characterized by the use of mathematical arguments proportions; the second, which coincides with the second test is characterized by the joint use of tree diagrams and algebraic expression of Bayes which had been taught by teachers; the third, which coincides with the third test, is characterized by the failed recall Bayes rule and incomplete use of the tree diagram attempt.