Open AccessDROUGHT FORECASTING BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING OF REMOTE SENSING AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST DATA
Author(s) -
Je-Keun Rhee,
Jungho Im,
S. Park
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
the international archives of the photogrammetry, remote sensing and spatial information sciences/international archives of the photogrammetry, remote sensing and spatial information sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.264
H-Index - 71
eISSN - 1682-1777
pISSN - 1682-1750
DOI - 10.5194/isprsarchives-xli-b8-157-2016
Subject(s) - evapotranspiration , machine learning , decision tree , random forest , computer science , index (typography) , precipitation , artificial intelligence , meteorology , environmental science , geography , ecology , world wide web , biology
The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6). An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.