Open AccessANALISIS DAN PROYEKSI INDIKATOR EKONOMI MAKRO PROVINSI MALUKU TAHUN 2018 - 2022
Author(s) -
Djufri Rays Pattilouw
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
cita ekonomika
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2775-3328
pISSN - 1978-3612
DOI - 10.51125/citaekonomika.v12i2.2099
Subject(s) - economics , inflation (cosmology) , unemployment , autoregressive integrated moving average , poverty , seasonal adjustment , econometrics , demographic economics , macroeconomics , time series , statistics , mathematics , economic growth , variable (mathematics) , physics , theoretical physics , mathematical analysis
This study aims to evaluate and forecast macroeconomic achievements for the next five years, covering four main macroeconomic indicators, namely economic growth, inflation, poverty and unemployment. The methodology used includes estimating the Autoregresive moving average (Arima) model, elasticity approach, central tendency, and landscape analysis. The results of the study concluded that: 1) Maluku's economy in the next five years is estimated to experience a slight increase with an average economic growth of 6.4 percent; 2) In line with the increase in economic activity inflation is also predicted to increase proportionally at an average of 3.1 percent for Ambon inflation, and 3.9 percent for Tual inflation; 3) Unemployment is predicted to decline with an average decline of 0.3 percent annually, while the poverty rate is also predicted to decline with an average decline of 0.6 percent per year. The implication of this finding is that optimistic expectations for Maluku's future economic outlook should be able to be responded to through more progressive, effective and efficient APBD policies, as well as increasing the synergy of valid and uniform data-based programs, both across sectors and across districts / cities.