Open AccessTesting the Power Transition Theory with Relative Military Power
Author(s) -
Charles J. Koch
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of strategic security
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.156
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 1944-0472
pISSN - 1944-0464
DOI - 10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1884
Subject(s) - dyad , population , power (physics) , parity (physics) , purchasing power parity , sample (material) , economics , econometrics , demographic economics , psychology , demography , social psychology , sociology , physics , thermodynamics , monetary economics , particle physics , exchange rate
This article tests the power transition theory using relative military power within a dyad pair. The author hypothesizes that when a dyad pair achieves relative military power parity, the two states are likely to initiate war. Furthermore, when a dyad pair no longer maintains relative military power parity, the probability of war between the two states decreases. Although the sample population used to test this hypothesis is small (n=3), the mixed-method analysis indicates support to the power transition theory. Furthermore, results are more substantial when using military expenditure and surplus domestic when compared to results using military personnel and surplus domestic product. No statistically significant difference exists (p=.99) when comparing military expenditure and surplus domestic product with a combination of military expenditure, military personnel, and surplus domestic product. These results indicate that relative military power possesses the potential to provide researchers an additional quantitative measure to test the power transition theory. Although these initial results are promising, further research is required to test a larger sample population of dyads.