Open AccessUsing the Box-Jenkins Method to Forecast Sesame Exports in Sudan during the Period 1990-2028
Author(s) -
Waraq Ali Waraq Nacer
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
mağallaẗ buḥūṯ al-idāraẗ wa al-iqtiṣād
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2710-8856
pISSN - 2676-184X
DOI - 10.48100/merj.v1i4.70
Subject(s) - box–jenkins , value (mathematics) , econometrics , period (music) , measure (data warehouse) , statistical analysis , statistics , mathematics , economics , computer science , data mining , time series , physics , autoregressive integrated moving average , acoustics
This study uses the Box–Jenkins method to predict sesame exports in Sudan. After analysis discriminating via various statistical tests, it is found that AR MA (5,3,5) model is the best model to measure this phenomenon. This model was used to predict till 2028. The results indicate that the predicted values are less than the real values till 2001. Then the predicted value is bigger.
The study recommended that the foreign economic relations and to search in how to apply it to help in the marketing of products.