Open AccessFORECASTING OF EVAPORATION FOR MAKNI RESERVOIR IN OSMANABAD DISTRICT OF MAHARASHTRA, INDIA
Author(s) -
D.T MESHRAM,
S.D. GORANTIWAR,
A.D. KULKARNI,
P.A. HANGARGEKAR
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
international journal of advanced technology in civil engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2231-5721
DOI - 10.47893/ijatce.2013.1075
Subject(s) - autocorrelation , partial autocorrelation function , mean squared error , statistics , mathematics , autoregressive integrated moving average , hydrology (agriculture) , time series , engineering , geotechnical engineering
The study was carried out to select the best forecasting m del for the estimation of pan evaporation (Epan) values for Makni reservoir. SARIMA model of 1st order were selected based on observing autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) of weekly evaporation time series. The model parameters were estimated by using maximum likelihood method with help of three diagnostic tests (i.e. standard error, ACF and PACF of residuals and AIC). The best model is selected for forecasting weekly evaporation values for the one year ahead to help decision makers to have accurate management of reservoir capacity, real time irrigation scheduling and watershed management by using lowest root mean square error (RMSE). The best stochastic model are SARIMA (1 ,0 ,0,) ( 1,1,1,)52