Open AccessSocial effect of Covid-19: Estimates and alternatives for Latin America and the Caribbean
Author(s) -
Ivonne Acevedo,
Francesca Castellani,
Iván Flores,
Giulia Lotti,
Miguel Székely
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
latin american economic review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.391
H-Index - 8
eISSN - 2198-3526
pISSN - 2196-436X
DOI - 10.47872/laer-2020-29-8
Subject(s) - postponement , latin americans , social security , economics , poverty , payroll , social protection , public economics , development economics , covid-19 , social cost , economic growth , demographic economics , political science , market economy , operations management , neoclassical economics , accounting , law , medicine , disease , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty)
This document offers estimates of the possible changes in the social structure of the countries of Latin America derived from the consequent economic contraction from the Covid-19 pandemic and explores the possible costs and benefits of different types of interventions to cushion its impact. The analysis forecasts that the number of people living in poverty (extreme and moderate) would increase by up to 44 thousand million people in the region. It also finds that the policy with the highest benefit-cost ratio is the postponement of payroll taxes and social security contributions. Other alternatives such as granting support to unemployed persons, temporarily doubling the benefits of existing social programs, and the transfer of income to self-employed workers also generate a favorable benefit-cost ratio, with differences among countries.