Application of digital engineering methods in the agro-industrial complex on the example of crop productivity forecasting

The research is dedicated to the development of a method for quantifying the productivity of an agricultural crop with a long lifespan (using the example of an apple orchard). To achieve this goal, the possibility of predicting the yield of an apple orchard was evaluated using existing techniques and methods of data analysis; agrotechnical significant time points in the life cycle of an apple orchard were identified; a prognostic model was formed that simultaneously satisfies biological and agrotechnical constraints and provides the maximum tier of reliability of the yielding forecast result available for the crop under consideration. It is shown that the cumulative yield of an apple orchard lends itself to forecasting much better than the dynamics of the annual yield. As a consequence, in strategic planning in the agricultural and industrial complex, it makes sense to focus on integral performance indicators that level out deviations caused to varying degrees by random causes.