Open AccessПрогнозирование основных параметров социально-экономического развития Республики Беларусь на основе динамической межотраслевой модели
Author(s) -
М. К. Кравцов,
А. А. Гладкая,
Т. А. Дехтярь,
М. К. Кравцов,
A. A. Gladkaya,
T. A. Dekhtyar
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
belorusskij èkonomičeskij žurnal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1818-4510
DOI - 10.46782/1818-4510-2020-2-4-24
Subject(s) - gross output , christian ministry , econometric model , economics , econometrics , macro , economic indicator , production (economics) , macroeconomics , economy , computer science , political science , law , programming language
The article provides the extended version of input-output balance and econometric model for predicting key macro-indicators of the Belarusian economy, which has been developed by the Economy Research Institute (the ERI) of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus. Special attention has been given to such indicators as compensation of employees, gross operating surplus and gross mixed income, and other net taxes on production. All econometric models for predicting input-output coefficients, gross output by aggregates and the key elements of final use at the republican level have been overestimated and some models have been improved. Based on statistical information of the Republic of Belarus 2017–2018 predictive calculations have been performed, which have the acceptable forecast accuracy and indicate the possibility of using the proposed models in the development of forecasts and programs for the country’s socio-economic development.