Open AccessMonte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Analysis Based Limestone Quarry Production Planning
Author(s) -
Kamran Shah,
Safi Ur Rehman
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
international journal of economic and environment geology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2223-957X
DOI - 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss1.2021.560
Subject(s) - monte carlo method , raw material , production (economics) , factory (object oriented programming) , quality (philosophy) , computer science , plan (archaeology) , production planning , raw data , process engineering , engineering , statistics , mathematics , history , philosophy , chemistry , organic chemistry , epistemology , archaeology , economics , macroeconomics , programming language
The key factor behind raw mix design in the cement factory is the appropriate production planning, resulting in high-quality raw material. Quarry managers usually come up with uncertainty-related raw materials due to variations in chemical composition. These uncertainties required efficient planning in terms of useful insight into this problem. This research provides a detailed explanation of scenario analysis of raw materials used in cement manufacturing using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and indices. Scenario analysis is used to predict the possibility of best, worst and most likely cases of raw material’s quality. Whereas, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the inherent uncertainty associated with chemical composition values in order to analyze the impact of truly unpredictable scenarios. The predictive results help in decisions related to production planning, raw mix design optimization and increasing the probability of designing the best plan.