Open AccessModeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 Incidence Rate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach
Author(s) -
Gabriel Onuche Odekina,
Adedayo F. Adedotun,
O. F. Imaga
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of the nigerian society of physical sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2714-4704
DOI - 10.46481/jnsps.2022.431
Subject(s) - autoregressive model , autocorrelation , heteroscedasticity , econometrics , vector autoregression , statistics , autoregressive integrated moving average , star model , covid-19 , multivariate statistics , mathematics , time series , medicine , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty)
Modeling the onset of a pandemic is important for forming inferences and putting measures in place. In this study, we used the Vector autoregressive model to model and forecast the number of confirmed covid-19 cases and deaths in Nigeria, taking into account the relationship that exists between both multivariate variables. Before using the Vector Autoregressive model, a co-integration test was performed. An autocorrelation test and a heteroscedasticity test were also performed, and it was discovered that there is no autocorrelation at lags 3 and 4, as well as no heteroscedasticity. According to the findings of the study, the number of covid-19 cases and deaths is on the rise. To forecast the number of cases and deaths, a Vector Autoregressive model with lag 4 was used. The projection likewise shows a steady increase in the number of deaths over time, but a minor drop in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases.